VC Vanessa Larco predicts 2026 will be the year of the consumer

Investment in consumer technology startups has faced a downturn since 2022, as venture capitalists shifted focus toward enterprise software. However, Vanessa Larco, a partner at the venture capital firm Premise and a former partner at NEA, argues that the sector is preparing for a turnaround. Speaking on a podcast, Larco asserted that “this is gonna be the year of the consumer,” pointing to 2026 as the inflection point for a resurgence in consumer-facing technology.

Unlike enterprise software, where adoption often stalls because corporate buyers struggle to find starting points, consumer and “prosumer”—which she defines as a consumer who also produces content or value—applications benefit from immediate user intent. Larco noted that users already know what they want to use these tools for, allowing startups to quickly gauge product-market fit and pivot if necessary. This feedback loop means startups do not have to guess whether they have achieved product-market fit.

A driver of this shift is the evolution of artificial intelligence into concierge-like services, which she defines as AI agents that perform tasks on behalf of the user. However, building in this space requires navigating platform risks. Larco warned that startups must prepare for scenarios where platforms like OpenAI might take a 30% cut of the traffic they direct to other services. This fee could impact how companies choose to interact with platform ecosystems.

To survive, Larco suggests startups focus on areas that OpenAI is unlikely to target. Specifically, she noted that OpenAI does not want to manage real-world assets or humans. Consequently, startups building marketplaces that require physical operations or human management—such as home-sharing platforms—are less likely to face competition from the AI developer. Larco believes this leaves opportunities for startups to fill the gaps.

The shift in consumer tech also extends to hardware and user interfaces. Larco believes that voice AI assistants are finally on the cusp of happening, enabled by technology and compute. She noted that certain tasks are better suited for voice than a screen, suggesting that voice interfaces will increasingly replace screens for simple queries. This transition allows designers to choose the form factor for use cases rather than relying on screens as a crutch.

At the same time, the rise of generative AI is forcing a transformation in how users consume content on social media. Larco observed that during political events, AI-generated slop muddied the waters of the truth on social platforms. This influx of synthetic media may push users away from social networks for news, transforming platforms like Meta into entertainment and gaming media, while driving users to seek human content elsewhere. As platforms struggle with deepfakes, users may turn to spaces that verify human participation.

Why it matters

This shift signals a pivot in venture capital focus from enterprise-heavy AI to consumer-facing applications, potentially reshaping how users interact with the internet via voice and concierge-style agents.