SpaceX reportedly eyes 2026 IPO as secondary market booms

SpaceX is reportedly lining up four major Wall Street banks for a potential 2026 IPO. According to Greg Martin, managing director at Rainmaker Securities—a broker-dealer specializing in secondary share transactions—the preparation is a significant signal that indicates the company is serious about a public debut. If the company goes public, it could create a reset in the initial public offering (IPO) market, serving as a bellwether—a company that indicates the trend of the market—after a dismal period for public listings that has persisted since 2021.

While the public market has faced a years-long drought, late-stage private companies have increasingly relied on the secondary market—the market for trading shares of private companies—to provide liquidity. SpaceX has been a primary driver of this activity, recently completing a tender offer—a method for private companies to provide liquidity to shareholders—at an $800 billion valuation. Even during the market down periods of ‘22 and ‘23, the company continued to see strong demand. On Rainmaker’s platform, which traded over $1 billion worth of secondaries last year, SpaceX shares have been pricing closer to the trillion and a half dollars discussed as a potential IPO price. This secondary market demand extends to other pre-IPO giants, including the Canadian artificial intelligence startup Cohere, as well as US firms like OpenAI and Anthropic.

However, a public debut introduces significant regulatory and operational complexities. Because SpaceX handles sensitive technology, it faces national security risks that require it to prevent links to US adversaries on its cap table. To mitigate this, any public offering would probably make only 5% of their company available to the public. Furthermore, the company’s operational track record will face public scrutiny, particularly given that several of their aircraft have exploded over the past year.

Recent reports that SpaceX may be considering mergers or transactions with xAI and Tesla have also introduced volatility. Martin noted that “The news that SpaceX may be considering various transactions with xAI and Tesla, has caused a temporary pause in the market for SpaceX shares, as shareholders and investors sort through the implications of these potential transactions.”

Why it matters

SpaceX’s potential IPO could signal the reopening of public markets after a years-long IPO drought, while the company’s secondary market activity serves as a bellwether for investor interest in pre-IPO giants.