Anthropic leads private market demand as SpaceX IPO looms

In the secondary market—the market where investors buy and sell existing shares of private companies—Anthropic has emerged as the most highly sought-after asset. Glen Anderson, the president of the investment bank Rainmaker Securities, speaking from his home in Miami, noted that Anthropic is the most difficult stock to source in their marketplace because there are no sellers. This intense demand is backed by capital; Ken Smythe, the founder and CEO of Next Round Capital, reported that buyers indicated they had $2 billion in cash ready to deploy into Anthropic. Meanwhile, competitor OpenAI is experiencing a cooler reception. Anderson acknowledged that the secondary market for OpenAI is currently far less vibrant than the market for Anthropic.

This shift in momentum is reflected in pricing dynamics and company warnings. Glen Anderson broadly confirmed that OpenAI shares are trading on the secondary market at a valuation of $765 billion, representing a discount to the company’s primary-round valuation of $852 billion. Amid these pricing dynamics, investors are trying to sell roughly $600 million in OpenAI shares. OpenAI has actively sought to control this trading, warning through an OpenAI spokesperson that “People should be extremely cautious of any firm that purports to have access to OpenAI equity, including through an SPV.” An SPV, or Special Purpose Vehicle, is a legal entity created for a specific financial transaction. To bypass high-fee brokers, banks like Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs are offering OpenAI shares to high-net-worth clients without carry fees—the performance-based fees charged by investment managers. Conversely, Goldman Sachs is charging carry fees that are often 15% to 20% of profits for clients seeking Anthropic exposure.

While AI startups navigate these shifts, SpaceX stands apart. According to Anderson, SpaceX did not experience the market correction that hit other private companies between 2022 and 2024, a period when average private share prices declined by 60% to 70%. Instead, SpaceX has maintained consistent upward momentum, positioning itself for a large market debut. SpaceX has filed confidentially for an IPO, which could possibly occur in June.

The scale of SpaceX’s growth and its upcoming offering is highlighted by the following figures:

• 2015 Valuation: SpaceX was valued at roughly $12 billion when Google and Fidelity invested $1 billion.
• Current Valuation: The company is now valued at more than $1 trillion, representing a gain of more than 100x for those 2015 investors.
• IPO Target: CEO Elon Musk is reportedly aiming to raise between $50 billion and $75 billion.
• Historical Comparison: This target is comparable only to Saudi Aramco’s 2019 debut, which valued the energy giant at $1.7 trillion.

This massive offering is already shifting secondary market dynamics. Anderson reported a flood of buy-side interest, but warned that SpaceX will absorb a significant amount of liquidity because there is a limited amount of capital allocated for initial public offerings. This capital absorption could pose a challenge for Anthropic and OpenAI, both of which are reportedly exploring public offerings of their own.

Why it matters

The secondary market is shifting as investors prioritize liquidity and proven performance; SpaceX’s massive IPO could set a high bar for capital absorption, leaving less room for AI companies like Anthropic and OpenAI to execute their own public debuts.